There are countless 'handicapping services' available of providing people who have parlays. They will tout win rates much like many of the most impressive straight wager cappers. Of course, you will see that they refer to money line parlays as 'safe' bets. On a number of these sites you may even have the privilege of dealing with some sort of royalty in neuro-scientific parlay wagering. Regrettably, thousands will undoubtedly be fooled by this fiction again this football season.
The truth is that exotic wagers keep sports books running a business. Next time you're in Vegas take a look at the discarded tickets you see spread all over the place. It's safe to assume that might be the majority of these losers are made up of such bets placed on both sports and racing. Of all the sucker bets open to sports bettors, the parlay is king. KingFun are lured in by the promise of a huge payout while disregarding the truth that there is absolutely no reasonable expectation of any return on the investment.
The home edge on a standard straight wager at -110 is 4.5%. Weighed against many table games this is actually a fairly high percentage. Plenty of table games and slots provide a better value for the common bettor placing a random wager. However, everybody knows that betting on sports isn't anything like throwing a set of dice at the trunk wall.
Chance plays a role in everything the house has to offer. Additionally, there are steps that can be taken to reduce the edge in only about every game. Nowhere in the casino are elements such as skill and preparation more useful than the sports book. The edge on a straight wager can be reversed in the bettors favor through the use of statistics and expertise in a sport. However, a double digit house edge can never be overcome in the end.
# of Teams | Actual Odds | Typical Payout | House Edge
2 | 3/1 | 2.6/1 | 10.00%
3 | 7/1 | 6/1 | 12.50%
4 | 15/1 | 10/1 | 31.25%
5 | 31/1 | 20/1 | 34.38%
6 | 63/1 | 40/1 | 35.94%
7 | 127/1 | 75/1 | 40.63%
8 | 255/1 | 150/1 | 41.02%
9 | 511/1 | 300/1 | 41.21%
10 | 1023/1 | 700/1 | 31.54%
As you can plainly see every parlay you can possibly bet comes with a whopping 10% house edge or better. Such casino advantages tend to be more consistent with keno, and they are equally impossible to overcome in the end. There is absolutely no mystery surrounding the world of parlays. Bettors are attracted to risking handful of money for large payouts. The games which are frequently played in the casino are slots that offer thousands as well as millions in progressive jackpots. The mentality of these bettors is 'Go big, or go back home.' The casino is actually pleased to oblige as millions of bettors go back home with nothing in their pockets every year.
It really is fair to assume that the biggest amount of losing bets a book accepts are exotic wagers of equal to or double the house minimum. For the reason that most bettors do not have a meaningful bankroll set aside for sports betting. Given that they don't believe they are able to make any real money by placing $25-50 on several games per week they continue taking parlays for $20 or less. Using this method they essentially ensure a substantial loss by the finish of the growing season. Meanwhile, if they only placed straight wagers at that same level they would limit their potential losses to some units at most.
Many bettors assume that because they are keeping how big is their bets low they're not taking on a substantial risk. This analysis is flawed since it ignores several factors. Most importantly, it is my experience that most bettors usually do not place just one parlay weekly. In football this means a minimum of 34 parlays are placed during the regular season. In baseball that number can simply exceed 100. With a minimal unit bet this is still a dangerous amount of wagers to put with this type of high house edge. For instance, for anyone who is placing only 5 team parlays your expectation should be to lose about $35 for each and every $100 you wager. As the number of bets you place increases it is inevitable that you will hit that $100 mark several times over.
Using parlays as a side bet will most likely result in upping your losses or erasing any profits you managed to make on straight wagers. In '09 2009, I had a client who broke even with increasing his bankroll by 45% using my picks. He were able to do that by placing 'small' side bets including parlays, reverses, and teasers. That is an expensive lesson to learn especially when you consider I issued a similar warning to him.
If you are going to follow his lead and continue using parlays I have a few pointers that will help you over time. First of all, the best value of all parlays is actually the three team parlay. The difference between the house edge on a 2 & 3 teamer is insignificant, but the payout is a lot more than twice as much. Invest the a glance at the graph you need to understand why I would never bet a parlay of 4 teams or even more. However, if you're going to make such an investment listed below are two useful tips:
If you are likely to bet a four or five 5 team parlay, always make it 6 as well as 10. The difference between the house edge to include one or two 2 more teams is within 5 percentage points and the payout is significantly higher for both options. The house edge on a 10 teamer is virtually the same as a 4 team parlay, however the actual odds of hitting it are over 1,000 to at least one 1.
If you are going to throw your money away chasing huge payouts on 7, 8, and 9 team parlays then just bet the 10 teamer. THE HOME edge is about 10 points lower than all three of these bets and it typically pays about 700/1.
Setting reasonable goals and being patient while working to achieve them may be the sign of a profitable professional bettor. Greed must be kept in check to become successful. In this regard, every bettor has two options. It is possible to chase high returns while assuming plenty of unnecessary risk. Or it is possible to minimize your exposure to several units while maintaining an acceptable expectation to increase your bankroll by 50%...The choice is yours.