"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," it is possible to play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not understand how to bet an "if/reverse." A complete explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, combined with the situations in which each is best..
An "if" bet is strictly what it sounds like. You bet Team A and when it wins you then place an equal amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a type of "if" bet where you bet on the initial team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the second team. With a true "if" bet, instead of betting double on the second team, you bet the same amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you would like to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can even be made on two games kicking off concurrently. The bookmaker will wait before first game is over. If the first game wins, he'll put an equal amount on the next game though it was already played.
Although an "if" bet is really two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that so long as want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet cannot be cancelled, even if the second game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. For that reason, there is less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. When the two games you bet overlap with time, however, the only method to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Needless to say, when two games overlap in time, cancellation of the second game bet isn't an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at differing times, most books will not allow you to fill in the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You may make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I wish to make an 'if' bet," and, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction would be the same as betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and then, only when Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the second team. Whether or not the next team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet would be $110 when you lose on the initial team. If the first team wins, however, you'll have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the next team. In that case, if the second team loses, your total loss would be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a total win of $200. Thus, the utmost loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the full $110, rather than just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can see, it matters a great deal which game you put first in an "if" bet. If you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. If you split however the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to steer clear of the uncertainty due to the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you would bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This type of double bet, reversing the order of exactly the same two teams, is called an "if/reverse" or sometimes only a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't have to state both bets. You only tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," both teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the result would be the same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the initial "if bet, and then $50 on Team B, for a total win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. The two "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the effect would also be the same as if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would set you back $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Rather than losing $110 once the first team loses and the next wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you'll lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the initial combination, and have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the next combination, you'll win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the next mix of $5 vig. The loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined lack of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the first combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses without reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and both reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers would never put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 rather than $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us any money, but it does have the benefit of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry as to which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows can be an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations give you a headache, skip them and simply write down the guidelines. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, if you can win a lot more than 52.5% or more of your games. If you fail to consistently achieve a winning percentage, however, making "if" bets whenever you bet two teams will save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting on one should not be made dependent on whether or not you win another. On the other hand, for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, anything that keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the amount of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is exactly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and for that reason "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. When the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone tells you that the way to win would be to bet fewer games. A good winner never really wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" workout exactly the same as "if" bets, they both place the winner at the same disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
Much like all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by successful with a confident expectation in only two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I can think of which you have no other choice is if you are the very best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down the aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux and that means you left it in the automobile, you only bet offshore in a deposit account with no line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you prefer two games which overlap in time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you need to walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If so, hold your head up high, put a smile on your own face, look for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Needless to say you could bet a parlay, but as you will see below, the "if/reverse" is a superb substitute for the parlay when you are winner.
For the winner, the best method is straight betting. Regarding co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there exists a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor is getting the advantage of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within the same game, they must be produced as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the fact that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
nhà cái hi88 could do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favourite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We would simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when among our combinations comes in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when making co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under will come in with the favorite, or over comes in with the underdog, the parlay will lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" has a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay will be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favourite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the overall game will review the comparatively low total, and if the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the game will under the total. As we have already seen, if you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends on how close the lines privately and total are one to the other, but the fact that they're co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes a better bet compared to the parlay when coming up with our two co-dependent is a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate since it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only need to win one out from the two. Each one of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the chance of either the favourite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or the other must win) then all we need is a 72% probability that when, for example, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the full total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we have been only � point from a win. A BC cover will result in an over 72% of the time is not an unreasonable assumption under the circumstances.
As compared to a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a total increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" may cause us to lose a supplementary $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased loss of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."
