"IF" Bets and Reverses
I mentioned last week, that when your book offers "if/reverses," you can play those rather than parlays. Some of you may not know how to bet an "if/reverse." A full explanation and comparison of "if" bets, "if/reverses," and parlays follows, together with the situations where each is best..
An "if" bet is exactly what it sounds like. Without a doubt Team A and when it wins then you place the same amount on Team B. A parlay with two games going off at differing times is a kind of "if" bet in which you bet on the initial team, and when it wins without a doubt double on the next team. With a true "if" bet, rather than betting double on the second team, you bet an equal amount on the second team.
It is possible to avoid two calls to the bookmaker and lock in the current line on a later game by telling your bookmaker you want to make an "if" bet. "If" bets can also be made on two games kicking off at the same time. The bookmaker will wait until the first game has ended. If the first game wins, he will put an equal amount on the second game even though it has already been played.
Although an "if" bet is in fact two straight bets at normal vig, you cannot decide later that you no longer want the next bet. Once you make an "if" bet, the next bet can't be cancelled, even if the next game have not gone off yet. If the initial game wins, you should have action on the next game. Because of this, there's less control over an "if" bet than over two straight bets. Once the two games without a doubt overlap in time, however, the only way to bet one only when another wins is by placing an "if" bet. Of course, when two games overlap with time, cancellation of the next game bet is not an issue. It should be noted, that when the two games start at different times, most books won't allow you to complete the second game later. You must designate both teams when you make the bet.
You possibly can make an "if" bet by saying to the bookmaker, "I want to make an 'if' bet," and then, "Give me Team A IF Team B for $100." Giving your bookmaker that instruction will be the identical to betting $110 to win $100 on Team A, and, only if Team A wins, betting another $110 to win $100 on Team B.
If the initial team in the "if" bet loses, there is no bet on the next team. Whether or not the second team wins of loses, your total loss on the "if" bet will be $110 when you lose on the first team. If the initial team wins, however, you would have a bet of $110 to win $100 going on the second team. If so, if the second team loses, your total loss will be just the $10 of vig on the split of both teams. If both games win, you would win $100 on Team A and $100 on Team B, for a complete win of $200. Thus, the maximum loss on an "if" will be $110, and the utmost win would be $200. That is balanced by the disadvantage of losing the entire $110, instead of just $10 of vig, every time the teams split with the first team in the bet losing.
As you can plainly see, it matters a good deal which game you put first within an "if" bet. In the event that you put the loser first in a split, then you lose your full bet. In the event that you split but the loser is the second team in the bet, then you only lose the vig.
Bettors soon found that the way to avoid the uncertainty caused by the order of wins and loses would be to make two "if" bets putting each team first. Rather than betting $110 on " Team A if Team B," you'll bet just $55 on " Team A if Team B." and then create a second "if" bet reversing the order of the teams for another $55. The next bet would put Team B first and Team Another. This kind of double bet, reversing the order of the same two teams, is named an "if/reverse" or sometimes just a "reverse."
A "reverse" is two separate "if" bets:
Team A if Team B for $55 to win $50; and
Team B if Team A for $55 to win $50.
You don't need to state both bets. You merely tell the clerk you need to bet a "reverse," the two teams, and the total amount.
If both teams win, the effect would be the identical to if you played an individual "if" bet for $100. You win $50 on Team A in the first "if bet, and $50 on Team B, for a complete win of $100. In the next "if" bet, you win $50 on Team B, and $50 on Team A, for a total win of $100. Both "if" bets together create a total win of $200 when both teams win.
If both teams lose, the result would also function as same as if you played a single "if" bet for $100. Team A's loss would set you back $55 in the initial "if" combination, and nothing would look at Team B. In the next combination, Team B's loss would cost you $55 and nothing would look at to Team A. You'll lose $55 on each of the bets for a complete maximum loss of $110 whenever both teams lose.
The difference occurs once the teams split. Instead of losing $110 once the first team loses and the second wins, and $10 once the first team wins however the second loses, in the reverse you will lose $60 on a split no matter which team wins and which loses. It works out this way. If Team A loses you'll lose $55 on the first combination, and also have nothing going on the winning Team B. In the second combination, you will win $50 on Team B, and also have action on Team A for a $55 loss, resulting in a net loss on the second mix of $5 vig. The increased loss of $55 on the first "if" bet and $5 on the second "if" bet offers you a combined loss of $60 on the "reverse." When Team B loses, you'll lose the $5 vig on the initial combination and the $55 on the second combination for exactly the same $60 on the split..
We've accomplished this smaller lack of $60 instead of $110 once the first team loses with no reduction in the win when both teams win. In both single $110 "if" bet and the two reversed "if" bets for $55, the win is $200 when both teams cover the spread. The bookmakers could not put themselves at that type of disadvantage, however. The gain of $50 whenever Team A loses is fully offset by the extra $50 loss ($60 instead of $10) whenever Team B is the loser. Thus, the "reverse" doesn't actually save us hardly any money, but it does have the advantage of making the chance more predictable, and preventing the worry concerning which team to put first in the "if" bet.
(What follows is an advanced discussion of betting technique. If charts and explanations provide you with a headache, skip them and write down the rules. I'll summarize the rules in an easy to copy list in my next article.)
As with parlays, the overall rule regarding "if" bets is:
DON'T, when you can win a lot more than 52.5% or even more of your games. If you cannot consistently achieve an absolute percentage, however, making "if" bets once you bet two teams can save you money.
For the winning bettor, the "if" bet adds some luck to your betting equation that doesn't belong there. If two games are worth betting, then they should both be bet. Betting using one should not be made dependent on whether you win another. On 789bet casino , for the bettor who includes a negative expectation, the "if" bet will prevent him from betting on the next team whenever the initial team loses. By preventing some bets, the "if" bet saves the negative expectation bettor some vig.
The $10 savings for the "if" bettor results from the fact that he is not betting the next game when both lose. Compared to the straight bettor, the "if" bettor comes with an additional expense of $100 when Team A loses and Team B wins, but he saves $110 when Team A and Team B both lose.
In summary, whatever keeps the loser from betting more games is good. "If" bets decrease the number of games that the loser bets.
The rule for the winning bettor is strictly opposite. Anything that keeps the winning bettor from betting more games is bad, and therefore "if" bets will definitely cost the winning handicapper money. Once the winning bettor plays fewer games, he's got fewer winners. Understand that next time someone lets you know that the way to win is to bet fewer games. A smart winner never wants to bet fewer games. Since "if/reverses" work out a similar as "if" bets, they both place the winner at an equal disadvantage.
Exceptions to the Rule - When a Winner Should Bet Parlays and "IF's"
As with all rules, there are exceptions. "If" bets and parlays should be made by a winner with a positive expectation in mere two circumstances::
If you find no other choice and he must bet either an "if/reverse," a parlay, or perhaps a teaser; or
When betting co-dependent propositions.
The only time I could think of which you have no other choice is if you're the best man at your friend's wedding, you're waiting to walk down that aisle, your laptop looked ridiculous in the pocket of one's tux which means you left it in the car, you merely bet offshore in a deposit account without line of credit, the book includes a $50 minimum phone bet, you like two games which overlap with time, you grab your trusty cell five minutes before kickoff and 45 seconds before you must walk to the alter with some beastly bride's maid in a frilly purple dress on your own arm, you try to make two $55 bets and suddenly realize you merely have $75 in your account.
Because the old philosopher used to say, "Is that what's troubling you, bucky?" If that's the case, hold your head up high, put a smile on your face, search for the silver lining, and make a $50 "if" bet on your two teams. Of course you could bet a parlay, but as you will notice below, the "if/reverse" is an effective replacement for the parlay should you be winner.
For the winner, the very best method is straight betting. In the case of co-dependent bets, however, as already discussed, there is a huge advantage to betting combinations. With a parlay, the bettor gets the benefit of increased parlay probability of 13-5 on combined bets that have greater than the normal expectation of winning. Since, by definition, co-dependent bets should always be contained within exactly the same game, they must be made as "if" bets. With a co-dependent bet our advantage originates from the point that we make the second bet only IF one of many propositions wins.
It would do us no good to straight bet $110 each on the favorite and the underdog and $110 each on the over and the under. We'd simply lose the vig no matter how usually the favorite and over or the underdog and under combinations won. As we've seen, if we play two out of 4 possible results in two parlays of the favourite and over and the underdog and under, we are able to net a $160 win when one of our combinations will come in. When to find the parlay or the "reverse" when coming up with co-dependent combinations is discussed below.
Choosing Between "IF" Bets and Parlays
Based on a $110 parlay, which we'll use for the purpose of consistent comparisons, our net parlay win when one of our combinations hits is $176 (the $286 win on the winning parlay minus the $110 loss on the losing parlay). In a $110 "reverse" bet our net win will be $180 every time among our combinations hits (the $400 win on the winning if/reverse without the $220 loss on the losing if/reverse).
When a split occurs and the under comes in with the favorite, or higher will come in with the underdog, the parlay will eventually lose $110 while the reverse loses $120. Thus, the "reverse" includes a $4 advantage on the winning side, and the parlay includes a $10 advantage on the losing end. Obviously, again, in a 50-50 situation the parlay would be better.
With co-dependent side and total bets, however, we have been not in a 50-50 situation. If the favorite covers the high spread, it is much more likely that the game will go over the comparatively low total, and when the favorite fails to cover the high spread, it really is more likely that the overall game will under the total. As we have already seen, when you have a positive expectation the "if/reverse" is really a superior bet to the parlay. The specific probability of a win on our co-dependent side and total bets depends upon how close the lines on the side and total are to one another, but the fact that they are co-dependent gives us a positive expectation.
The point where the "if/reverse" becomes an improved bet compared to the parlay when making our two co-dependent is really a 72% win-rate. This is not as outrageous a win-rate as it sounds. When making two combinations, you have two chances to win. You only have to win one out of your two. Each of the combinations comes with an independent positive expectation. If we assume the opportunity of either the favorite or the underdog winning is 100% (obviously one or another must win) then all we are in need of is a 72% probability that when, for instance, Boston College -38 � scores enough to win by 39 points that the overall game will go over the total 53 � at least 72% of the time as a co-dependent bet. If Ball State scores even one TD, then we are only � point from a win. A BC cover can lead to an over 72% of the time isn't an unreasonable assumption beneath the circumstances.
As compared with a parlay at a 72% win-rate, our two "if/reverse" bets will win a supplementary $4 seventy-two times, for a complete increased win of $4 x 72 = $288. Betting "if/reverses" will cause us to lose an extra $10 the 28 times that the outcomes split for a total increased lack of $280. Obviously, at a win rate of 72% the difference is slight.
Rule: At win percentages below 72% use parlays, and at win-rates of 72% or above use "if/reverses."